Xeneta's analysis indicates that the global air cargo market is expected to experience a slowdown in the latter half of 2026.

Air freight rates have been declining since the escalation of the Middle East conflict in February, with minimal signs of a peak season boost for airlines and freight forwarders. July 2026 saw global air cargo spot rates 28% higher than the previous year, yet growth slowed for the second month in a row. Factors such as the ongoing conflict, fluctuating fuel prices, and changes in EU customs duties may influence future rates. Despite a 4% year-on-year growth in demand, the market is expected to remain softer in the second half of 2026, with airlines cautious about quickly reducing rates.