The durability of air freight will be challenged if the conflict in the Middle East persists.

The global air freight market faces challenges due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, impacting growth forecasts for 2026. Unlike previous crises where air cargo compensated for ocean freight disruptions, this situation is uniquely detrimental to airlines. Rising fuel costs and a significant drop in air cargo capacity, now 30% below pre-conflict levels, have led to increased rates. Stakeholders show solidarity as they navigate uncertainties, shifting towards shorter contracts. The long-term effects on demand will depend on the conflict's duration and economic ramifications.