The outlook for air cargo is overshadowed by the Middle East conflict, even as demand increases.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created uncertainty in the global air cargo market, despite a 6% year-on-year demand growth in February 2026, as reported by Xeneta. Although air cargo spot rates increased for the first time since May 2025, geopolitical tensions, particularly following military strikes and airspace restrictions, have led to a significant loss of capacity and demand, especially affecting routes from South and Southeast Asia. The future of the market hinges on the conflict's duration, with potential for increased logistics costs if disruptions persist.