Xeneta's analysis indicates that air cargo demand will increase by 6% by the end of 2025.

Global air cargo demand saw a +6% year-on-year increase in December 2025, capping a turbulent year with overall growth of +4%. However, industry analysts warn of potential issues in 2026, predicting a modest growth of +2-3% due to stagnant e-commerce shipments, especially from China. Despite a strong finish to 2025, average airfreight rates fell -4% year-on-year as supply outpaced demand. Regulatory changes and declining consumer purchasing power may further impact e-commerce growth, leading shippers to seek lower rates amid a cautious market outlook.