Adjustments to FedEx and UPS pricing are establishing ground shipping rates for a record-setting 2025.

Ground delivery costs are anticipated to remain high in 2025, marking a record year for shipping rates, according to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index. Per-package rates surpassed previous projections, climbing 31.2% above the January 2018 baseline in Q3 2025, driven by peak season surcharges and dimensional rounding changes. Although rates fell from Q2 to Q3 due to a decrease in residential shipments, the overall trend indicates rising costs, influenced by increased fuel surcharges and shifts in shipper strategies towards more economical delivery options and packaging adjustments.