US tariffs influence seasonal air cargo movements in September.

U.S. tariffs have disrupted seasonal air cargo flows, leading to a 3% year-over-year slowdown in demand as companies frontloaded shipments. Spot rates fell for the fifth month, dropping 4% to $2.54 per kilogram. Despite a shift of supply chains toward Southeast Asia, rates there decreased 22% year-over-year. The removal of the de minimis exemption affected Transpacific volumes, prompting carriers to reduce freight capacity. Market uncertainty has led to a rise in short-term contracts, while long-term contracts decline. Although Q4 may be underwhelming, growth is expected in 2025.