Is the demand for air cargo in cross-border e-commerce under threat?

The temporary return of the de minimis exemption could significantly impact air freight capacity between the U.S. and China, as its removal would raise costs and create customs delays for e-commerce shipments, which make up over 50% of cargo capacity from China to the U.S. Although prices may increase, the demand for fast, cheap goods will persist, and air freight rates may not see immediate changes. Despite a lower-than-expected increase in January air freight demand, a 4% to 6% growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, though uncertainties surrounding tariffs could affect trade confidence.