The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects a 2.5%-to-3.5% increase in holiday retail sales for 2024, estimating total spending between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, surpassing 2023’s $955.6 billion. This forecast aligns with NRF’s annual growth predictions and reflects a healthy economy supported by strong consumer spending, job market, and wage growth. E-commerce is expected to be a significant contributor, increasing by 8%-to-9%. However, challenges like high housing costs and inflation persist, and the upcoming election may also affect consumer behavior.

Source: https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/nrfs_holiday_season_retail_sales_forecast_points_to_steady_growth_amid_various_headwinds/